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MLB and College Baseball Betting Picks, Odds, and Predictions

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Yesterday was exciting. We bet on the Astros at +120, and it was a smooth ride. Alex Bregman smashed a two-run homer early on, setting the tone in Baseball . Even though they did not need to they added four more runs. Winning 4-0 as the underdog when not doing so well before is a fantastic feeling.

Today, I’ve got a neat bet in MLB where you can earn some extra cash with a strikeout prop. Plus, I’ve got a pick for the College Baseball Tournament. Let’s get into it.

As I checked out the games today, I noticed Tobias Myers and the Brewers caught my attention. Myers has been stepping up his game lately, and he’s got a favorable matchup at home. But, supporting the Brewers today is a bit pricey, and Erick Fedde is no slouch for the White Sox.

Instead of betting against Fedde, I’m putting my money on Myers to tally up some strikeouts. Remember the last time we bet on Myers? He went up against Sonny Gray, and the Brewers nailed a 7-1 victory.

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Even though Myers only pitched for four innings, he managed to snag six strikeouts and gave up just one run in Baseball. Sure, he walked four batters, but the Brewers trusted him enough to throw 84 pitches before taking him out.

Myers hasn’t gone beyond that many pitches before, but they might let him pitch longer this time. The Brewers’ bullpen is in a tough spot with little rest. Only Hoby Milner hasn’t pitched in the last two days, but he threw the two days before that. Trevor Megill is still uncertain so there was no one else who has not thrown more than 20 pitches in the last three days.

At some point they will have to turn to their bullpen. But if Myers is doing a good job they will probably let him keep going. I am estimating he will throw around 80-85 pitches which should see him through about five innings.

At a certain stage the team will need to switch to their bullpen. But if Myers is performing well they will likely allow him to continue pitching. I anticipate he will throw approximately 80-85 pitches. Which should enable him to complete around five innings.

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Here is how Myers pitches have been performing lately

  • Slider: Ranked last, with a .247 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).
  • Curveball: Ranked 13th best, with a .276 xwOBA.
  • Changeup: Second worst, with a .253 xwOBA.
  • Four-seam fastball: Seventh worst, with a .329 xwOBA.
  • Cutter: Also second worst, with a .298 xwOBA.

Myers’ changeup and slider are impressive. They’re his go-to pitches for getting hitters out, with a whiff rate of 30% or more. Against these tricky pitches, the White Sox rank 11th highest in swing-and-miss rate.

Myers is likely to get plenty of swing-and-misses with his fastball too. Its spin rate has increased to almost 2300 revolutions per minute (RPM), giving it that rising movement when it reaches the top of the strike zone.

The White Sox struggle against these kinds of pitches, having the lowest run value in the league against four-seamers due to their tendency to swing and miss often. Even when they do make contact, it’s still not great, ranking seventh worst in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).

Myers has pitched six times this season, but only twice at home. In those two home games against the Cardinals and Yankees, he exceeded his strikeout total. Looking at the entire season the Cardinals strike out. Which is more often than the white Sox.

However in the last two weeks the white Sox have had the second highest strikeout rate in the league at 28%. While also posting a low offensive rating of 62 wRC+.

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It’s understandable why Myers enjoys pitching at home. According to Baseball Savant’s Park Factor, American Family Field is the second most favorable park for strikeouts. Additionally, being a rookie, he likely feels more comfortable pitching in familiar surroundings, which often happens with young pitchers.

Considering that the White Sox struggle against Myers and the Brewers bullpen is a bit shaky, Myers is likely to pitch for a good chunk of the game. If he manages to pitch for five innings, he should easily notch five strikeouts or more. Even if he only pitches for four innings, I’m still confident in our chances. I’d be willing to bet on this up to odds of -120.

Today, in the regional college baseball tournament, there’s a game that’s expected to be a real slugfest, meaning lots of runs scored. The matchup has the highest predicted total runs on the schedule, so it’s bound to be exciting.

Chris Stamos is likely to be the starting pitcher for Tennessee. He has doing pretty well this season with a 3.34 earned run average (ERA). Further he has struck out 32 batters in about 30 innings of pitching. But he probably would not stay in the game as too long.

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After a few innings, they will switch to AJ Causey who was also a right handed pitcher. Causey has some good pitching skills but his ERA is a bit higher at 4.10. He was not the best pitcher on the team though. They want to save Drew Beam their ace pitcher for later games against tougher opponents.

Now, Tennessee might have a solid pitching plan, but Northern Kentucky (NKU) is no slouch, especially when it comes to hitting. NKU strength lies in their offense. They were among the top teams in the country in terms of scoring runs.

Further batting average on base percentage and slugging percentage. They ranked fifth inruns which scored with an average of 9.51 runs per game. While sixth in batting average at .319 fourth in OBP with .436 and 13th in SLG at .546.

So its shaping up to be a showdown between Tennessee pitching and NKU hitting prowess. Get ready for some serious action on the baseball diamond.

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This year the NKU baseball team scored 15 runs or more in 12 of their games. They had seven games where they scored over 20 runs. In their lineup there are five players who are really good at hitting with an OPS (On base Plus Slugging percentage) over 1.000.

Also six players are hitting over .315 which is impressive. If they did not have such tough opponents to play against. They could have surprised everyone and done really well in the tournament. They were definitely strong hitters. But Tennessee might score as many runs as NKU by themselves.

Now lets talk about Tennessee. Many people think they have the best offense in the country. They were especially good against right handed pitchers like Tanner Gillis from NKU. Tanner is the best pitcher and has pitched for 72 innings this season with 80 strikeouts.

His ERA is 4.66 which means he usually gives up around 4 or 5 runs per game. But the thing is he has not played against an offense as strong as Tennessee. In one of his games against Georgia he gave up ten runs in just three innings.

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The Volunteers are doing really well this season. They were ranked second in SLG with .600 19th in AVG (Batting Average) with .311 25th in OBP (On base Percentage) with .414 and third in home runs per game. They were scoring an average of 9.07 runs per game. That is a lot especially when you think about the teams they were playing against.

Now, let’s talk about where the game is happening. It’s in Knoxville, which is a great place for hitters. The ballpark there is known for helping hitters because the ball flies really well. If you hit the ball up high, it’s easier for it to go out of the park. And that’s what both teams in this game are good at doing.

Usually, if a team gets ahead by ten runs during a regular game, they might end the game early. But not in this tournament. They’re going to play all nine innings no matter what. Tennessee might even get close to scoring enough runs to win the game on their own!

But NKU is also a strong team and should hit some home runs too. So, if you’re betting, it might be a good idea to expect the score to go up to 15 runs, and you could win at -110 odds.

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