NBA Best Bets Today: Best bets, odds, and analysis

The betting market has consistently favored Oklahoma City throughout this series. However, it’s no surprise to see the line drop to 3.5 at most sportsbooks this morning. This seems to be the bottom line for the spread. Although Circa saw some buyback at -3.5, pushing it back to -4, the current line sits at -3.5 with juice favoring the Thunder, making it one of the best NBA bets today.

There a solid rationale behind the support for Oklahoma City. In Game 4, the Mavericks closed as a 1-point favorite. By Game 5, the Thunder were favored by 4.5 points. These shifts do not exactly translate to the current opening line of Mavericks -4.5, suggesting that the market might have misjudged this series from the start.

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Notably, this game comes with the lowest total in the series so far. The under has hit in four of the five games, so it’s not shocking to see the total drop. After closing at 219 in Game 1, the total is now down to 208, reflecting both the market trend and the game flow.

Neither team has been especially efficient offensively. The Mavericks are averaging 1.097 factors consistent with possession, whilst the Thunder are slightly in the back of with 109.9 factors according to 100 possessions. However, this has been the quickest-paced collection of the convention semifinals, with an average tempo of ninety 4.6 possessions in keeping with sport.

That number was skewed by the slow Game 5, which had only 87 possessions. While the previous four games averaged 96.1 possessions.

With a total of 208, it’s likely that the floor for this number has been reached, though we haven’t seen much buyback at that level yet. For Best NBA Bets Today, it’s possible we’ll see some movement closer to game time.

On the court docket, Oklahoma City needs to figure out how to interrupt via Dallas’ protection. The Thunder excel at driving to the basket, main the league in drives in keeping with game (61.1). Moreover, ranking the various exceptional in paint scoring all through the regular season. Yet, in this collection, simplest 28.6% in their attempts are coming on the rim. As a end result, they’re capturing just 39.6% from quick mid-variety, compared to 47.6% during the ordinary season.

So far, Oklahoma City hasn’t observed a manner to continuously attack Dallas’ protection. Better taking pictures could help, however that hasn’t been a power for the Thunder on this series either.

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Lu Dort is shooting just 32.4% on 6.83-factor attempts per recreation. Jalen Williams is hitting 31.Three% of his three.2 tries, whilst Aaron Wiggins, a 49.2% shooter inside the regular season, is all the way down to 30.8%. Chet Holmgren has struggled too, making simply 25% of his 3.

At some point, you would expect these numbers to improve for a team that has been statistically better. But regression doesn’t always happen, especially within a single series. From a betting perspective, there are a few ways to approach this game.

The first bet to consider is the total. With the pace in four of the 5 games being conducive to higher scoring and both teams struggling with efficiency. It’s possible that this game could go over the current low number of 208. Additionally, for today’s NBA best bets, there are some interesting player props worth exploring.

Jalen Williams has underperformed for Oklahoma City so far, averaging just 16.0 points on 40.8% shooting. His points prop (17.5) is at its lowest point in the series. His usage rate in this series (21.9%) is down from the regular season (24.2%), largely due to a very low rate in Game 5 (15.8%). If his usage stabilizes and his shooting returns to form, he could be a good candidate to exceed his point total.

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Cason Wallace is another intriguing option. Wallace saw his minutes increase in Game 5, jumping from an average of 18.9 minutes in the first four games to 27 minutes. His usage rate also spiked to 13.0%, and he took seven shots, including five three-pointers. While he only made 1. However, of those 3, the increase in playing time suggests value in the +260 odds for him to hit 2+ 3-pointers.

These are the angles worth considering for tonight’s game. Strong leans are on over 208, Williams to go over his points prop of 17.5, and Wallace to make 23-pointers at +260.

That said, it’s been a tough series to predict. While, I’m already tied up in a Thunder series bet. So my rooting interest lies with Oklahoma City forcing a Game 7.